Big River Rankings #5 2012
Welcome to the last set of Big River Rankings for 2012. As you guys know these are just for fun and we’ll find out everything “for real” this Saturday! If we missed anyone in this last set let us know by emailing Kyle Cameron at kyle@bigriverrunning.com.
Big River Winter Distance Camp: We know the focus is on the State Meet this weekend but soon enough it will be time for winter training. 2012 marks the seventh year of Big River Winter Distance Camp. Sign up for four days of fun over the Holiday break and it all finishes up with our camp Indoor Track Meet at MICDS. Click HERE for the official Camp Brochure.
USA CROSS COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIPS: Registration is now available for the 2013 USA Cross Country Championships! The Big River Running Company HS 4K (7th – 12th graders) and the FLEET FEET 4K (adults and kids) will both include individual and team divisions. BIG NEWS: We know all of you Missouri runners like to talk about which side of the State has the better runners so we’re going to give you the chance to find out. The Big River Running Company HS 4K will feature an East v. West Showdown division! We will divide the State in half geographically and score the top 5 finishers (boys and girls) from each side against each other. Click HERE for all the info.
TEAM RANKINGS
TOP 10 GIRLS TEAMS
#1) LEE'S SUMMIT WEST – The Titans look ready to try and make it six straight Class 4 Championships this weekend. We took a hard look at all the teams this week to see if anyone has a chance to stop the streak. There are some teams that have a great chance, for sure, but LSW still deserves to be the favorites. Their spread was just 51 seconds at Sectionals and we project them to have all five scorers in the top 50 on Saturday.
#2) FRANCIS HOWELL– Well, we said that there are some teams that could get the better of LSW on Saturday and these ladies appear to be the best of that group. They have a great frontrunner in Kristen Adams who could very well be in the top five overall. Their number two runner, Whitney Adams (no relation), is the Class 4 defending champion at 400 meters and was 20th overall at last year’s State Cross Country meet. Howell could easily be ahead through two and probably even through three. As with most big races it will likely come down to the four and five runners and it’s anybody’s guess as to what will happen.
#3) ST. TERESA’S ACADEMY– St. Teresa’s was second in our pre-season rankings based on their fourth place State finish in 2011 and an excellent track season. They’ve bounced around in the rankings a bit in 2012 but they settle in at #3 heading into State after giving LSW a big scare at Sectionals. STA was just six points back overall after being ahead through four. To win on Saturday they don’t need to do anything different. They just have to hope things fall their way this time and that’s a pretty good position to be in.
#4) EUREKA– Eureka is the fourth team we think can win Class 4 on Saturday. They have a distinct advantage in that they will likely score just one point up front courtesy of Hannah Long. They also may end up with the best #2 runner in the State, Angie Sumner. It will just be a numbers game as to whether or not the 10 to 20 points they gain there can hold up against the outstanding depth that some of the other squads bring to the table.
#5) STE GENEVIEVE– We talk a lot about 1-5 spreads when discussing team battles but that number loses all its value when your number one runner wins most meets by more than a minute. So with Taylor Werner up front you need to look at the rest of the group and what you see is pretty darn good. Just 46 seconds separated their 2-5 runners at the Class 3 District 1 meet where they took an amazing six of the top nine spots.
#6) MARQUETTE– The Lady Mustangs impressed last week with a tight spread and a smart come-from-behind approach. They did even better at Sectionals with just 39 seconds separating their 1-5 runners. The question will be whether or not that approach can get them a trophy on Saturday. It will be close.
#7) JEFFERSON CITY– We can never decide if it’s an advantage to have the State meet in your own backyard or not. The truth is it probably doesn’t matter much, especially with this course since it’s available to golfers only 363 days of the year. Anyway, the Lady Jays won Sectional 3 convincingly and look poised for a nice showing on Saturday.
#8) ROCK BRIDGE– Rock Bridge was missing returning All-Stater Kayla Funkenbusch in their scoring five at Sectionals but still finished second to Jefferson City. They have a great top three, and though only ranked #8 here, they could put it all together and be a trophy team this weekend. They have the firepower to do it.
#9) KEARNEY– These ladies had to deal with a lot of pressure at Sectionals in a battle for third and fourth with good squads from Lee’s Summit North and Liberty. They survived with a third place finish and can now go for broke on Saturday. Remember that they were the Class 3 champs a year ago and were the second best team overall to Lee’s Summit West. They know how to run well at State.
#10) NERINX HALL– The Markers were the runners-up at Sectional 2 to Francis Howell over the weekend. Like so many squads they will need a bit tighter spread on Saturday to have a big day but they do have the luxury of a low stick up front in the form of last year’s fifth-placer Sophia Racette.
TOP 10 BOYS TEAMS
#1) BLUE SPRINGS- Blue Springs will look to go wire-to-wire as the State’s #1 team this Saturday. Whether they pull it off or not will just be a matter of going out and doing what they’ve done all season. They will almost undoubtedly be ahead through three and they may also end up with the State’s best #4 man in Devon Sesler, which would only pad their lead even more. Thanks to MoMileSplit message boarder “Hays” we know that at State the team who gets their fourth runner across the line first wins 81% of the time. For someone to beat the Wildcats they are going to have to run an epically strong pack race and put five in the top 40.
#2)SLUH- Well, if anyone can run an epically strong pack race it's these guys. We did the hypothetical math and putting five in the top 40 is realistic for SLUH based on their 41-second spread at Sectionals and the fact that their number one man, Matt Nicholson, is a top ten contender. That still may not beat Blue Springs but it would likely put the Jr. Bills under 100 points and give them a fighter’s chance.
#3) ROCK BRIDGE- The boys from Rock Bridge are the defending champs. Let’s not forget that. They know how to win this thing and they could do it again. As good as Blue Springs is up front they may not really put that many points on the Bruins through two since Evan Schulte and Nathan Keown could both be in the top ten themselves. The test will be whether or not they can match SLUH’s scores at 3-5. If they can then their score may also end up under 100 and we believe something in the low 90s will win.
#4) WEST PLAINS- The Zizzers are in much the same boat as Rock Bridge and SLUH. They have a great pack and a tight spread but they don’t have the firepower to match Blue Springs up front. That’s understandable though since few teams over the last ten years could match what the Wildcats have through three. For the Zizzers they key will be to shore up the gap between their three and four men. Never count out a Joe Bill Dixon team at State.
#5) LAFAYETTE-- The Lancers won a very tough Sectional 1 by 18 points. They don’t have the tight spreads like SLUH, Rock Bridge and West Plains but they mirror Blue Springs in that they have a phenomenal first three. At State we think those low sticks up front will vault them ahead of some of the pack-oriented teams and into the top five overall.
#6) FESTUS- These guys impressed us as much as anyone this past weekend. At Jefferson Barracks Park, a notoriously tough course that often runs very similar to State, the Tigers put all five scorers between 16:46 and 17:11. If they do anything remotely similar at State they will be hard to beat in Class 3. Of course we said hard to beat, not impossible to beat, as Warrensburg can put up very similar numbers.
#7) ST. JOSEPH’S CENTRAL- The boys from St. Joe Central will be making their first trip to State as a team since 2004 when they finished second. This time around they come in riding high after a runner-up finish at Sectionals to #1 Blue Springs. Led by top ten contender Jeff Bachman, the Indians have that nothing-to-lose feel to them and those type of teams can be very dangerous at State.
#8) ROCKHURST- The Hawklets weren’t able to stay quite as tight as a pack as they had at Districts but they were still third in a very tough Sectional 4 and they still put all five scorers under 17 minutes. A trophy is not out of the question for this tough bunch.
#9) WARRENSBURG- Another race and another impressive performance for the young men from Warrensburg. It is amazing how similar they are to Festus, who they’ll be battling with for the Class 3 title. Every single spot will be vital in a match-up that may be the closest team race of the day. A mere eight seconds separated their 1-4 runners at Districts and their overall spread was just 34 seconds.
#10) MARQUETTE- The Mustangs have the top two ranked individuals in the State. Even if they don’t go 1-2 on Saturday they’ll likely score no more than six or seven total points. That means their other three scorers could combine for 150 points and they’d still be in contention for a trophy.
INDIVIDUAL RANKINGS
All season long we will try to keep an eye out for the top 15 runners in the State. Again, these are the top 15 regardless of Class. Occasionally we miss a runner or two so we apologize if we shorted you or your teammate. Feel free to email Kyle at kyle@bigriverrunning.com if you know someone who should be on the Big River Top 15. Enjoy!!
TOP 15 GIRLS
#1) Taylor Werner, FR, Ste Genevieve- Werner cruised an 18:15 at Jefferson Barracks at the District meet to continue her undefeated season. She and the rest of the Class 3 girls field will kick things off at 9am this Saturday. Werner has four years to do it so no pressure at all but it sure would be a fun way to start the day if she could take down Merideth Snow’s course record of 17:51. With afternoon temps possibly climbing into the 70s it bodes well for the freshman that she’ll be able to race in the cooler part of the day.
#2) Hannah Long, SO, Eureka- Long has been nearly as impressive as Werner all year long, beginning with their unforgettable head-to-head duel at the Forest Park Cross Country Festival. Long and her Eureka teammates will toe the line at 10:35am and it very well could be Long trying to better whatever mark Werner lays down earlier in the day.
#3) Kaitlyn Fischer, SR, Herculaneum- Fischer won her District meet by 1:22 which was nothing new for her this year. The Class 2 girls race does not go off until 12:25pm on Saturday but it should be well worth the wait to watch this champion finish off her Missouri High School cross country career in style. To say the Class 2 State course record of 19:01 is in jeopardy would be a serious understatement.
#4) Nicole Lee, JR, Clinton- Lee was the Class 3 District 5 champ in 19:00 on a Moberly course that must have been pretty tough if you look at times across the board. She appears to be the only runner capable of trying to compete with Taylor Werner on Saturday. It will be interesting to see if she goes for broke or concedes the pace to Werner and runs her own race.
#5) Nicole Mello, SR, Hickman- Mello was five seconds faster than a year ago at Ha Ha Tonka State Park in winning Sectional 3. This Saturday will serve as a chance for sweet redemption for the Columbia Hickman senior who fell early in the first mile at last year’s State meet. Of course, she still finished ninth there and proved how good she really was with a trip to Foot Locker Finals in December. We expect she will go out with Long and try to win a State title in her final trip to the Oak Hills Golf Center.
#6) Sarah Jacobsen, SR, Potosi- Jacobsen looked good in finishing second at Districts in 19:00. She has run on a lot of tough courses this year and should be well-prepared for the State layout. Potosi runners have a long history of competing well there.
#7) Kristen Adams, JR, Francis Howell- Adams jumps to #7 after a battle at Sectionals against Nerinx Hall’s Sophia Racette where she came out on top in a sprint to the finish. Her 18:19 there is a fantastic time and a good indicator that she’s in position to score five points or less for her Francis Howell squad in their bid to win a team title.
#8) Sophia Racette, SO, Nerinx Hall- Racette PR’d in 18:22 at Sectionals so she appears to be in her best shape of the season at the right time. She was fifth at last year’s State meet and will look to better that this time around.
#9) Brigette Caruthers, SR, Branson- Caruthers ran 18:22 at Sectionals, the exact same time she ran on the same course in 2011. Last year she followed it up with a third place finish at State and there’s no reason to think that wouldn’t be possible again.
#10) Maddy Brown, SO, Parkway West- After an amazing stretch of races, Brown just squeaked by at Sectionals, finishing 27th. Obviously something was not right so we won’t count that against her. Hopefully, she'll be back at full strength on Saturday.
#11) Angie Sumner, SR, Eureka- Sumner made it a 1-2 finish for the big E at Sectionals and will look to cap off her career with a top ten finish in Jefferson City. After the first five, the rest of the girls on this list could finish in almost any order.
#12) Kennadee Williams JR, Lee’s Summit West- Williams added the Sectional title to the District and Conference championships she had won in her previous two meets. She will be looked to for a low score in an effort to get LSW’s bid for a sixth-straight team title off to a good start.
#13) Alyssa Jones, SR, Rockwood Summit- Jones appeared to be back on her “A” game at Sectionals where she went sub 19 and finished third behind Long and Sumner. The Summit senior was 12th at last year’s State meet and 7th as a sophomore and if she finishes in that same range on Saturday she’ll have had a pretty amazing career.
#14) Courtney Coppinger SR, St. Teresa’s Academy- Coppinger was just once tick back of #12 Williams at Sectionals. Part of STA’s winning 4 x 800 squad last May, the senior knows how to handle the pressure of a State meet.
#15) Sarah Nicholson, FR, Lafayette- Nicholson has had a fantastic freshman campaign and will look to finish it off with a top ten finish in Class 4 on Saturday. She gets the #15 spot after a fourth place finish at Sectional 1. It was nearly impossible to pick these last four spots and everyone you see in the honorable mention category was considered. It’s a great problem to have as it means Missouri is as deep as ever.
Honorable Mention: Whitney Adams (Francis Howell), Ellyn Atkinson (Glendale), Saga Barzowski (Arcadia Valley), Chelsea Drum (Jackson), Sam Farmer (Rock Bridge), Paityn Howat (St. Joe Central), Ashley Coonfield (Kearney), Jenny McCarty (Fulton), Courtney Rogers (Lutheran St. Peters), Kaley Ruff (Jefferson City), Katie Tuck (Smithville), Tessa Weber (Camdenton), Jill Whitman (Cor Jesu), Kourtney West (Lee’s Summit West)
TOP 15 BOYS
#1) Noah Kauppila, JR, Marquette- We had to do a double-check to make sure this was correct but Kauppila and his teammate Adam Roderique ran the exact same times on the exact same course two weeks in a row at Districts and Sectionals. This tells us he was well under control and that there is likely more in the tank. Kauppila has only lost once this year and that was to Roderique. It will be interesting to see if they work together on Saturday or if it will just be every man for himself. The more likely scenario is a little bit of both.
#2) Adam Roderique, SR, Marquette- Last week we said it will be tough for anyone trying to beat Roderique and Kauppila at State because they clearly work together. We should also remember that Roderique is the only runner to have gotten the best of Kauppila this year and that gives the Marquette senior a level of confidence that no one else can have.
#3) Simon Belete, SR, Blue Springs– Belete has done everything right this year. He’s been fast, he’s been consistent and he’s been running really well down the stretch. Roderique and Kauppila bested him at Rim Rock but that was a month ago now. Saturday is a new day and you can better believe the senior wants to come away with the victory.
#4) Spencer Haik, JR, Glendale- This one was tough. The last few weeks it looked like Haik had passed up his teammate Chris Mooneyham and that he would be Glendale’s best bet for an individual winner at State. Then Mooneyham took home top honors at Sectionals but by just one second so you never know how hard they were going there. We are going to keep Haik at #4 mostly because we think the Class 4 State 1600 champ has the wheels to win this thing if it comes down to a kick on Saturday.
#5) Stephen Mugeche, SO, Blue Springs– Mugeche is a complete stud. On most teams on the planet he’d have the pressure of being the number one man but instead he’s had the luxury of following his senior teammate Simon Belete around all season. We expect more of the same on Saturday which means we could see Blue Springs score somewhere between three and nine points through two runners in their bid for a team title.
#6) Cole Rockhold, JR, Truman- Rockhold moves back up to #6 after a third place finish at Sectionals. He was won a lot of races this season and it wouldn’t be out of the question for him to do it again at State.
#7) Chris Mooneyham, SR, Glendale– In the unofficial battle for who will have the best 1-2 punch on Saturday, Mooneyham and teammate Haik are as good as anyone. We fully expect the Glendale senior to be a member of a fast lead pack in Jefferson City.
#8) Nicholas Stewart, SR, McCluer North- Stewart went sub 16 at Sectionals and we just have a feeling that the last two weeks he’s just been doing what he needs to do to win. If there is more in the tank then a big finish could be in the cards. Remember that this kid has run 1:53, 4:19 and 9:20. Those are serious credentials.
#9) Jason Fambrough, JR, Raymore Peculiar– Fambrough enters the State meet at #9 after his fourth place finish at Sectional 4. The Ray-Pec junior has been on a roll lately and there is no reason to believe that won’t continue this Saturday.
#10) Evan Schulte, JR, Rock Bridge- Schulte finally got the best of his teammate Nathan Keown at Sectionals where he was third and just two ticks back of Chris Mooneyham and one back of Spencer Haik. This news bodes well for Rock Bridge’s hopes of a team title, as they’ll need big runs from Schulte and Keown to have a shot.
#11) Nathan Keown, SR, Rock Bridge- Keown was fourth at Sectional 3. There is no reason to think he won’t be a top ten contender on Saturday after a great season that’s seen him place near the top every time out.
#12) Billy Leighton, SR, Cape Girardeau Central- It would be great to see Leighton score a top ten finish on Saturday after spending the majority of the year injured. At Sectionals he finished third in 16:10, one second faster than in 2011. At last year’s State meet he ended up 11th so top ten this time around is a real possibility and he’s clearly on the rise.
#13) Tyler Rush, SR, Linn- Rush, second a year ago in Class 1, is the clear favorite in 2012 and if the conditions are good then Caleb Hoover’s 16:11 Class record on the State course could be in play. Rush won his District meet by 40 seconds and has run 16:02 this year.
#14) Matt Nicholson, SR, SLUH- Nicholson PR’d at Sectionals with a 16:01 at Forest Park. It’s not the same layout as is used at the Forest Park Cross Country Festival but it's very similar terrain. His finish will be vital for the Jr. Bills as they’ll need every point they can get to try and upset Blue Springs for the team title.
#15) Andrew Moore, SR, Ste Genevevieve- Moore rolled a 16:23 at Jefferson Barracks to win his District meet by 23 seconds. That earned him the nod at #15 over a whole host of worthy candidates. We wish we could say something about everyone but we have to cut it off somewhere.
Honorable Mention: Jeff Bachman (St. Joe Central), Amos Bartlesmeyer (MICDS), Cameron Byrley (Parkview), Thomas Chabracek (Crane), Austin Del Rosso (DeSmet), Ian Frazier (Kickapoo), Ty Hughes (Liberty North), Derek Legenzoff (Lafayette), Liban Samatar (Oak Park), Kirk Smith (John Burroughs), Jordan West (Lafayette), William Thompson (Rockhurst), Dillon Williams (Webster Groves)
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