BIG RIVER 2009 RANKINGS #4 (State Predictions)
11.2.09
preseason rankings
rankings #1
rankings #2
rankings #3
For those of you who have followed our rankings over the past few years you know that these are just for fun and hopefully serve to give athletes a little extra motivation as the season rolls along. We will come out with the rankings every few weeks. For those of you who are new and checking out the rankings for the first time we hope you enjoy them and if you have anyone or any team that we missed let us know by emailing Ben at ben@bigriverrunning.com
**This last set of rankings of the year serves as our State Predictions. After each team and individual we will predict their place at State. We wish everyone the very best and be sure to listen LIVE to our State Preview Internet Broadcast on Tuesday November 3rd at 7:30pm when we will bring you an hour's worth of high school cross country talk including interviews with some of the State's top coaches. The show will be live on PREPCASTS and is sponsored by Big River Running Company, Momilesplit.com and St. Louis Injury and Rehab. Press Release HERE.
TEAM RANKINGS
TOP 10 GIRLS TEAMS
#1) LEE'S SUMMIT WEST – To no one's surprise LSW took home titles at Districts and Sectionals in convincing fashion. They realistically could have four runners in the top 15 at State and that's not a stretch at all.
Prediction: 1st, Class 4
#2) KICKAPOO – The Kickapoo girls were District and Sectional champs. They looked a bit better at Districts but you'll see as you read these rankings we don't always put a whole lot of stock in these last two weeks because it is always hard to tell what a team's strategy is in terms of holding back and resting for State. Their overall season indicates that they are the second best team out there and if all goes to form that's where they will finish in Class 4.
Prediction: 2nd, Class 4
#3) KEARNEY– This squad moved into the rankings last time out and now they jump all the way to #3 after a very impressive performance at the University of Arkansas' Chile Pepper Invite. They finished a solid third there, ahead of Class 3 rival West Plains.
Prediction: 1st, Class 3
#4) WEST PLAINS – The Lady Zizzers had a very tight 33 second spread at the Class 3 District 6 meet so they look good heading into State. Of course they go in as the second-ranked team in Class 3 behind Kearney, who bested them at Chile Pepper where both Missouri squads fared well.
Prediction: 2nd, Class 3
#5) HERCULANEUM –Herky comes in at #5 after a dominating win at the Class 2 District 1 meet. They look like the overwhelming favorites in Class 2 but it will be interesting to check out how their times stack up against the bigger classes. We think they'll look quite good.
Prediction: 1st, Class 2
#6) JEFFERSON CITY – Jeff City was only ten points back of Kickapoo at Sectionals. With the one-two punch of Briana Watson and Conradette King they are a squad who could really make some noise in their home city on Saturday.
Prediction: 3rd, Class 4
#7) LEE'S SUMMIT NORTH – LSN moves up to #7 after tying Ray-Pec for second at Districts and besting them by two points at Sectionals. You can't get too much closer than that. They also move up because we see them as a team with a lot of potential to surprise some people at State. Keep in mind that Taylor Hynes was only their third finisher at Sectionals. She is coming off injuries that have kept her from being her true self this year but someone who ran 18:36 at the State Meet a year ago could always pop off a big one.
Prediction: 4th, Class 4
#8) RAYMORE-PECULIAR – Ray-Pec, for all intents and purposes, is just as good as LSN. Getting beat by two points at Sectionals doesn't mean they couldn't turn the tables at State. In fact, while we stated above that LSN could finish higher than predicted so could these ladies. Case-in-point they had a tighter spread than LSN which could prove quite valuable at State in a larger field.
Prediction: 5th, Class 4
#9) EUREKA - The Lady Wildcats were the champs at a very difficult Sectional 1 meet. Things are really interesting in Class 4 with probably six teams vying for the last two trophy spots. Eureka is definitely one of those teams and has as good a chance as anyone if they have a good day.
Prediction: 6th, Class 4
#10) KIRKWOOD – The Lady Pioneers were just four points back of Eureka at Districts and ten points back at Sectionals. They are a very solid squad who have put together a very consistent last few weeks of the season. We should also mention that they come in at #10 just ahead of Rock Bridge who Kirkwood beat at the Border Wars meet. The Rock Bridge ladies are quite good and keep an eye on Ste Genevieve as well.
Prediction: 7th, Class 4
.............................................................TOP 10 BOYS TEAMS
#1) LEE'S SUMMIT NORTH – If we are biased in any way when we make these rankings it is in our fascination with the Class 4 boys team battles each year. These teams are always so stacked and it just seems like there is always a lot of hype about who will win. We think LSN absolutely deserves the favorite role after an outstanding regular season and dominating victories at Districts and Sectionals.
Prediction: 1st, Class 4
#2) SLUH – The Junior Bills jump up to #2 now that their number one man Caleb Ford is looking fit and healthy and their number two man Tim Rackers has shown he is capable of running right with Ford. SLUH held out runners at Districts and Sectionals but at full strength they match up very well with LSN. Here's a quick look at the two squads with the understanding that since they have not raced head-to-head it is very diificult to break down: SLUH looks like it could be better through two but LSN looks like it will score better at three. After that it's all about the four and five. At Sectionals, LSN's five was only 23 seconds back of their #1. That looks a little better than SLUH even after you consider the Junior Bills held out two of their top five. However, if you subscribe to the theory that SLUH's number one will be ahead of LSN's (and that is by no means a given) the math tells you this one is going to be decided by less than ten points either way.
Prediction: 2nd, Class 4
#3) WEST PLAINS – The Zizzers make a strong move to #3 and we would not be at all surprised if they end up being better than the two teams ahead of them when it's all said and done on Saturday. These guys went down to Fayeteville for the Chile Pepper Invite and absolutely destroyed a quality field with top teams from Arkansas and Texas. We know it's a fast course but their #1 man Jacob Shultz ran 16:06 and their #5 man Landon Franz was 16:36.
Prediction: 1st, Class 3
#4) LIBERTY – The Bluejays definitely have a chance to win the Class 4 race. They have been beaten by LSN a few times this year but each race brings its own chance for the unexpected, especially at State. They have had an outstanding season, including beating SLUH at Rim Rock, and looked very consistent all year. The one and only reason they fell from #2 to #4 is because of how good SLUH and West Plains looked over the last three weeks.
Prediction: 3rd, Class 4
#5) ROCK BRIDGE – We mentioned above that we love the Class 4 boys race because there are always so many compelling plotlines. We'd like to add this one; Rock Bridge could steal the whole show. Their one-two punch of Caleb Wilfong and Jordan Cook is very solid and if their pack sticks together and finds a way to finish in the top 50 then they could score very low.
Prediction: 4th, Class 4
#6) FESTUS - Festus makes the jump to #6 after looking closely at how they stacked up against Parkway West and Kickapoo. At the end of the day those three teams are very close but we give the nod to Festus after they looked very good at Districts led by Cole Allison's sub 16 performance.
Prediction: 2nd, Class 3
#7) PARKWAY WEST - First of all West is a team that has a fantastic track record of running well at State. We can't really take that into account here but what we can say is that this year when they have been at full strength they have looked very good. They appeared to be at full strength at Sectionals when they notched a win over DeSmet so all things point to a good performance on Saturday.
Prediction: 5th, Class 4
#8) KICKAPOO - Kickapoo may have been the toughest team to rank this time around. They may only score one point at their number one spot but at times they have been fairly spread out. What makes it tough is that they have shown more than once that if their pack tightens it up a bit they have the potential to finish with a trophy. So we'll put them at #8 but do not be surprised if they rise to the occasion in Jeff City.
Prediction: 6th, Class 4
#9) DE SMET – The Spartans looked good at Sectionals with a fifth man that ran 18:10 on a course that ran about a minute slow. That's pretty darn good.
Prediction: 7th, Class 4
#10) HICKMAN - This was another tough one because Jeff City beat Hickman at Districts but the Kewpies turned the tables on them at Sectionals. Looking toward State Jeff City has a better one-two punch but Hickman has a tighter spread. It will come down to how many athletes from other teams finish in between Jeff City's David McAdams and Alloch Burton and Hickman's number one man as well as how many finish between Hickman's five and Jeff City's five.
Prediction: 8th, Class 4
Individual Rankings
All season long (though maybe not as often as the team rankings) we will try to keep an eye out for the top 15 runners in the State. Again, these are the top 15 regardless of Class. It is a lot easier to miss a runner or two so we apologize if we shorted you or your teammate. Feel free to email Ben at ben@bigriverrunning.com if you know someone who should be on the Big River Top 15. Enjoy!!
TOP 15 GIRLS
#1) Emily Sisson, SR, Parkway Central – No surprises here. Sisson was the District and Sectional Champ and remains undefeated in the State of Missouri since her arrival last fall. With a week's worth of sunny days, finally, the State course may just firm up enough for Sisson to have a go at Merideth Snow's State record.
Prediction: 1st, Class 4
#2) Diane Robison, SR, Parkway Central – As you look at results from the entire season it seems that Robison and Sisson have avoided really going all-out against one another so far. Obviously this Saturday will be different and it should be a whole heck of a lot of fun.
Prediction: 2nd, Class 4
#3) Courtney Wood, JR, Neosho - Wood looked fantastic at Districts with an 18:10 and a one second win over her teammate Jessica Jackson. She was second to Jackson at Sectionals but typically she is their frontrunner.
Prediction: 3rd, Class 4
#4) Jessica Jackson, JR, Neosho - The other half of the dynamic Neosho duo, Jackson was the Sectional 3 Champ after being runner-up at Districts.
Prediction: 4th, Class 4
#5) Chelsea Phoebus, JR, Lee's Summit West - Phoebus comes in at #5 but we should say that we see her, as well as Wood and Jackson, as being very good and capable of finishing in any order.
Prediction: 5th, Class 4
#6) Liga Blyholder, SR, Lee's Summit West - What an interesting year when the top six athletes heading into the State Meet are from three schools. Blyholder looked great scoring runner-up finishes to her teammate Phoebus at Districts and Sectionals.
Prediction: 6th, Class 4
#7) Megan Yohe, SR, Liberty - Yohe was the District Champ at her home course and third at Sectionals behind the LSW duo of Pheobus and Blyholder. Last year Yohe had an outstanding State Meet, finishing second in 18:34 and went on to qualify for Nike Nationals as an individual so look for another big performance at another big meet.
Prediction: 7th, Class 4
#8) Samantha Nightingale, SO, Blue Springs South - Nightingale went sub 19 at Districts en route to a third place finish. She was only fifth at Sectionals but as we mentioned above you never can quite tell who may be holding back and waiting for State.
Prediction: 8th, Class 4
#9) Colleen Quigley, JR, Nerinx Hall- Quigley looked strong at Sectionals, traversing an extremely muddy course at Forest Park. She doesn't have too many races under her belt this year and should be fresh and ready to go at State.
Prediction: 9th, Class 4
#10) Alex Moase, JR, Lee's Summit West- Moase is the third LSW runner in the top ten but that's just how good they really are. Moase had a big day at Sectionals where she was fourth ahead of #8 Nightingale.
Prediction: 10th, Class 4
#11) Briana Watson, JR, Jefferson City- Watson has been good every time out but occasionally she has been very good like when she won the Forest Park Cross Country Festival. She looked to have her A game again at Sectionals where she was only three seconds back of #3 Wood and bested Hickman super freshman Nicole Mello, Kickapoo's Liz Reida and her teammate Conradette King among others.
Prediction: 11th, Class 4
#12) Sarah Jacobsen, FR, Potosi- Analyze the Class 3 girls and you will see that while there is no clear-cut favorite Potosi freshman Sarah Jacobsen probably has the best credentials coming in. She has looked solid all year and posted a 19:02 for a District victory in Farmington.
Prediction: 1st, Class 3
#13) Krista Menghini, JR, St. Joe's Academy- Menghini won her District Meet and was runner-up to #9 Quigley at Sectionals.
Prediction: 12th, Class 4
#14) Nicole Mello, FR, Hickman- Mello has been on the verge of the rankings all season and she sneaks in this week at #14 after beating previously ranked Liz Reida of Kickapoo at Sectionals. Can she beat the experience Reida at State? We'll see.
Prediction: 13th, Class 4
#15) Saga Barzowski, FR, Arcadia Valley- Watch out for this newcomer at the State Meet. She hasn't been in many big meets this season but sometimes those types of runners really step up on the big stage. She bested all of the Herculaneum runners at Districts and could very well be the Class 2 Champ.
Prediction: 1st, Class 2
TOP 15 BOYS
#1) Caleb Hoover, JR, College Heights Christian- Hoover added to an already long list of accomplishments with a thrilling win at the Chile Pepper Invite in Fayetteville a couple weeks back. He added a smooth victory at Sectionals and looks poised for a big show at the State Meet. The two big questions are will he run the fastest time of the day from Class 1 and will he be able to approach Matt Tegenkamp's course record?
Prediction: 1st, Class 1
#2) Maksim Korolev, SR, Harrisonville – The Harrisonville senior rolled out a 16:05 at Swope Park for a big Sectional victory. His story at State is similar to Hoover's. Will he run the fastest time of the day and can he run under 15:26?
Prediction: 1st, Class 3
#3) Danny Thater, SR, Kickapoo – With each passing week the Kickapoo senior looks like more and more of a favorite to take home the Class 4 boys crown on Saturday. Nothing is ever set in stone at State though as there are certainly runners ranked below him who will give him a very good race.
Prediction: 1st, Class 4
#4) Jacob Shultz, SR, West Plains– West Plains, as a team, looked mighty impressive over the last three weeks and this young man is a big reason why. With a 16:06 seventh place finish at the Chile Pepper Invite and a seemingly easy win at Districts Shultz may be the fastest runner-up of the day in Jeff City.
Prediction: 2nd, Class 3
#5) Kevin Colon, SR, Lee's Summit West– Colon was the District 7 Champ but was bested at the Sectional meet by Ray-Pec's Devon Young. We think you've got to give the nod to the defending State Champ though and it will be interesting to see if he can stay close enough to the front to unleash the same kick that earned him the Title a year ago.
Prediction: 2nd, Class 4
#6) Caleb Ford, SR, SLUH – Ford has won his last three meets and looked strong at Sectionals on a very muddy course against Fort Zumwalt North's Jake Benton.
Prediction: 3rd, Class 4
#7) Devon Young, JR, Ray-Pec– Young moves all the way to #7 on the heels of a Sectional victory over Colon. The KC boys have been very tough to rank all year because they are all so good and they keep beating each other and switching up the pecking order. Young seems like a good bet to finish very high though as he has been among the most consistent.
Prediction: 3rd, Class 4
#8) Caleb Wilfong, SO, Rock Bridge– Wilfong won a close race at Districts and was third at Sectionals behind his teammate Jordan Cook. He's beaten Cook all but two times this year so tough to say if he was holding back or not.
Prediction: 5th, Class 4
#9) Brett Klosterhoff, SR, St. Charles West – Klosterhoff won by almost 30 seconds at Districts and should certainly be in the hunt for runner-up honors in Class 3.
Prediction: 3rd, Class 3
#10) Brent Collins, SR, Hermitage– Collins won easily at Districts and is a strong favorite to finish second to Hoover in Class 1.
Prediction: 2nd, Class 1
#11) Kevin Krumrey, SR, Parkway Central– Krumrey moves up to his highest ranking of the year after kicking his way to victory at Sectionals over Parkway West's Jake Lamke. His competitors should look out if he's there with 200 to go.
Prediction: 6th, Class 4
#12) Collin Hubert, JR, Lee's Summit North– Explaining Hubert's ranking is also a good time to state that after Thater these guys are all super close and you could almost throw everyone from #4 to #15 and probably even a few more into a hat and do just as good a job ranking them as we've done here. That said, we feel strongly Hubert deserves to make the top 15 because his high end performances this year have been very strong including most recently when he was runner-up to #5 Colon at Districts and beat #7 Young.
Prediction: 7th, Class 4
#13) David Lambus, JR, University City– Lambus was a big winner at Districts and has shown all year that he is a fierce competitor. We could certainly see him finishing as high as second in Class 3.
Prediction: 4th, Class 3
#14)Cole Allison, SR, Festus– Allison has been in and out of the rankings but his 15:55 District win over a couple of solid guys from Cape Notre Dame puts him at #14 heading into State.
Prediction: 5th, Class 3
#15) Tim Rackers, JR, SLUH– Grabbing the last spot is a total newcomer to the rankings but someone we probably should have mentioned last time around. SLUH's #2 man, Rackers was just a tick back of Caleb Ford at Conference and at Districts and though it may be tough to stay within one second of his teammate at a meet as large as State those last two performances suggest he'll be pretty close. Another guy who almost made the list for the first time this week was Lebanon's Tony Crowder who appears to be peaking at the right time.
Prediction: 8th, Class 4
Don't forget to listen to our LIVE State Preview broadcast on PREPCASTS Tuesday evening at 7:30pm.
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