BIG RIVER 2008 STATE MEET PREVIEW
11.06.08
The 2008 Missouri State Cross Country Championships are only two days away and this year's meet features some big storylines including the possibilty of course records, a very tight battle for the Class 4 Boys Team title, and then there is the predicted cold weather which could mean hard ground and fast times in Jefferson City. We have listed our top ten things to watch for on Saturday. If you are a fan of running at any level we encourage you to make the trip to our State's Capitol to watch an exciting day of racing. For our money there is no better atmosphere in high school athletics than a State cross country meet. Enjoy!!
10) How will the cold weather affect the race?
In distance running cold weather usually equals fast times. The State Meets that have been slow are typically either muddy or hot. The years where times are fast usually have temperatures in the 40s or 50s with little wind and no rain. As of Thursday morning the forecast calls for 38 degrees and partly sunny at 9am in Jefferson City. There is a 14mph wind predicted but that should not be enough to significantly affect things. In 2006 the weather was 50 degrees and overcast and the Class 4 boys race saw 5 athletes break 16 minutes, a feat that had only been accomplished 11 times total before that day. There is a small chance for rain on Friday but it doesn't look like enough to really create any problems. Bottom line is we think the times are going to be very fast and the cold weather will create a true midwest cross country atmosphere.
9) Will there be a freshman All-Stater in the Class 4 boys race?
History tells us it is extremely rare for a freshman to crack the top 25 in the Class 4 Boys race at State. Over the last seven years the highest finish by a freshman was 33rd, accomplished by St. Joe Central's Chris Pullen in 2001 and Kickapoo's Rick Elliot in 2004. Last year's State Champ Eric Fernandez was only 76th his freshman year. Look for Oakville's Jake Bast to buck the trend and be Missouri's youngest All-Stater in 2008. Bast has had an incredible rookie campaign highlighted by a runner-up finish at Sectionals where he ran 16:32 at Jefferson Barracks, a course that is very similar to the State layout.
8) Just how dominant are the Lee's Summit West girls?
The answer to this one is easy...they are extremely dominant and should show it on Saturday if all goes well. Why these girls aren't ranked in the top 10 or 15 in the country is a mystery to us. They finished second at the Roy Griak Invite where they beat Iowa's Dowling Catholic, a team that qualified for Nationals a year ago. Start examining the numbers and you will see what we mean. Consider this, their team spread is typically right around one minute. If sophomore Chelsey Phoebus finishes right around 19:00 which seems more than realistic given her outstanding season that puts their fifth runner at 20:00 which is nearly always in the top 25. Even in 2006 which was a fast year 20:00 would have been 27th. Expect five all-staters for LSW and expect a big victory. Maybe then they can get some national respect!
7) Will Potosi's Jacob Swearingen go out on top?
No doubt Swearingen is one of Missouri's top harriers of all time. He was 20th as a freshman, third as a sophomore in a class record 15:52 on the tough State course and he was the Class 3 Champion a year ago. On paper he is certainly the favorite once again but with the depth in the sport at an all-time high there are no guarantees. We actually want to go on record as saying Swearingen will get all he bargained for from Harrisonville's Maksim Korolev. O'Hara's Max Storms, Mexico's Hayden Legg, West Plains' Phillip Palomino and his teammate Nick Niggeman should be in the lead pack as well. At the end of the day though it is Swearingen's race to lose and we can't really picture him doing that. Expect a big start to the day as the Class 3 boys race kicks off the festivities at 9am. We would love to see Swearingen take it out hard from the gun and go after Matt Tegenkamp's State record. He is absolutely capable of challenging that hallowed mark.
6) Will the College Heights Christian boys stack up to the big classes?
It is safe to say that the CHC boys team is the best squad to come through Class 1 in history. At Districts they went 1-5 with a 53 second spread and that was with number one man Caleb Hoover running 15:58. It will be tough to repeat the sweep at the State Meet but it could happen. The interesting thing will be to plug their times into the overall list from the day and see how they compare to the Class 3 and 4 powers. They are currently ranked eighth in the Big River Rankings but they could certainly climb higher. Either way, make sure you stick around for their race. It is at 11:55 and it will be well worth it.
5) Who will take the Class 3 Girls individual race?
The smart money is on senior Alyssa Allison from Festus. She has had a superb season and an outstanding career. Her State Track Meet last spring was National Class as she went 2:12, 4:51 and 10:48. Still though, she is not the defending champ. That distinction belongs to Ladue's Natalie Todd. Also a senior, Todd burst onto the scene in 2007 and dominated Class 3 all year long. Her track season was the polar opposite of Allison's though as she suffered through injuries that kept her out well into the summer. It has only been recently that she has begun to show last year's form. She ran 19:29 on the notoriously difficult Borgia course at Districts, 23 seconds faster than she ran at the same venue only two weeks earlier. If she keeps that momentum rolling she could certainly be a factor.
4) Will Potosi's streak continue?
You have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the last year where the Trojans did not win a trophy at the State Meet. In fact, they have won the Title in 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006 and 2007. The only year in that span in which they did not make their way to the top of the podium was 2004 when they were second to an outstanding West Plains squad. Despite often fielding an entire team that totaled less than ten athletes this small town squad has been Nationally-ranked and even finished seventh at Nike Team Nationals in 2006. This year has been a bit of a struggle team wise but they still have lots of firepower up front in the form of seniors Jacob Swearingen and Nick Niggeman. Those two should score no more than five points between them and that could be as low as three. If you look closely at their District results where they were a mere six points behind a very good Cape Notre Dame team it is looking pretty good that the streak will continue. We certainly wouldn't bet against them.
3) Who is better...Kansas City or Saint Louis?
The never-ending argument that seems to take place every year among coaches and athletes is which of the two big Missouri cities boast the best athletes for that particular season. The argument seems the most prevalent on the Class 4 boys side so that's what we will take a look at. Last year it was clearly the teams and individuals from the east side of the State that had the advantage. SLUH and Parkway West went 1-2 in team scoring and more impressive was the 15 all-staters from St. Louis compared to two from KC. What a difference a year makes though. While we are not saying that KC has completely turned the tables it does certainly look a lot closer. The four Kansas City schools seem positioned to outduel the top four St. Louis schools and Lee's Summit West has a chance to upset SLUH for the overall title. Individual-wise St. Louis always has an advantage in overall numbers because they have two Sectionals and thus more athletes in the meet. In terms of the top runners though it still seems like the east-siders have an advantage and should put a few more in the top 25. Confused? So are we. We'll have to let the massage board posters figure this one out on Monday morning.
2) Will Emily Sisson break Merideth Snow's Course Record?
When Eureka's Merideth Snow ran 17:51 at State in 2005 it seemed impossible to those who witnessed it that the mark would be broken any time soon. That was before two-time Foot Locker finalist and track All-American Emily Sisson moved to Missouri this summer and registered for classes at Parkway Central. Sisson, as expected, has been dominant in Missouri this season going undefeated in-state. Still though, with all of her credentials and there are too many to list, it will take a superb run to get the record. Let's not forget that Snow was also a Foot Locker finalist and ran 10:15 on the track the following Spring. We think Sisson will be within five seconds of the mark one way or another so keep an eye on the clock at about 9:47 when she should be rounding the turn for home!
1) Who will win the Class 4 Boys team title?
There are a lot of great teams this year in Class 4 but two have separated themselves from the pack and both are ranked in the top 25 in the country. SLUH, the defending State champs, came into the season as heavy favorites to repeat come November. By late September it was clear that they had a worthy challenger in the form of the Lee's Summit West Titans. LSW beat National power Rogers High School from Arkansas at the Southern Stampede and then finished second at the Roy Griak Invite in Minnesota where they topped Wayzata (MN), a National qualifier a year ago. The debate has been on ever since as to who will win this Saturday.
Our take is this: because of the depth and talent on both squads it will essentially come down to a dual meet with a little luck thrown in there in terms of the adjusted scoring system. Kevin Colon is clearly LSW's number one man and on paper it seems would be likely to finish before any SLUH runner. Austin Cookson has been SLUH's one man all year and the form charts say he'll be just a few ticks but maybe only one or two places back of Colon. Here is where things get interesting. John Clohisy, SLUH's number one man a year ago and a two-time All-Stater spent much of the season in the pool with a stress fracture. He is healthy now and will race on Saturday in his first serious effort since coming back. It seems impossible that he'll finish as high as he might have if healthy all season long. Still, it seems just as unlikely that he'll run poorly. The odds say he'll finish behind Colon and Cookson but ahead of Henry and Miller. Caleb Ford, SLUH's two man, looked very good at districts and was only 12 seconds back of Cookson. At the Kansas City sectional LSW's two man was Miller at 25 seconds back of Colon with Henry three ticks back of Miller. In the dual meet scenario that would put Ford in at SLUH's three ahead of LSW's 2.
You following all this? Stay with us because here is where LSW looks really good. Their 4 and 5 runners were within 16 seconds of Henry at Sectionals. The LSW gap from 3-4 looks better than SLUH's. That said, it's not as if SLUH lacks firepower there. It will just be a matter of how many runners from other schools sneak in there between where LSW's 4 and 5 men finish as compared to SLUH's. Then comes the dreaded adjusted scoring where runners from schools who did not qualify as a team will be taken out.
Of course this is all pure conjecture and if they handed out trophies based on predictions we wouldn't need the race! We dare not make a prediction other than to say that whoever wins it won't be by much and that there should be a large crowd at the clubhouse waiting for the big board to announce the winner.
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