Predicting 2024 MO TF Class and District Alignments

For those of you who may not be familiar with how enrollment is figured, MSHSAA has listed out the following guidelines in their handbook: 

Classification Procedures:

1. Official Enrollments Finalized and Registrations Reviewed: Enrollments declared and finalized; enrollments are combined for the schools in Cooperative Sponsorships (sport/activity specific). For the sports of cross country and track & field, determine which gender has more registrations, and begin Step 2 with that gender. (See By-Law 5.1)
2. Break into Last Year's Classes: In enrollment order, place the current year's registered schools a) into the same number of classes as the prior year, and b) into the same numbers per class as the prior year.
3. 2.0 Differential Review: Calculate the enrollment differential for each class by dividing the largest school's enrollment by the smallest school's enrollment. Determine if the differential for each class, other than Class 1, is 2.0 or below (differentials from 2.01 to 2.04 will be rounded down to 2.0). If all classes above Class 1 have a differential of 2.0 or less, the number of classes are final (end of procedure, see Step 7). If any class's differential (other than Class 1) is greater than 2.0, the number of schools in the upper classes should be adjusted to see if, by moving schools down from a larger class into a smaller class, all differentials can be made to meet the 2.0 limit. Moving up from Class 1, the class counts should either be equal to the number in Class 1 or the count should decrease as the class number increases (preserving an equal or waterfall approach) AND all differentials, other than Class 1, should be at 2.0 or below. If this is successful, the procedure ends; see Step 7.
4. Efforts to Stay Consistent: Attempts will be made to adjust the class lines and the numbers in the classes while maintaining the 2.0 differential BEFORE adding a class. (See Classification Note 8.) If this is not possible, move to Step 5.
5. Add a Class: Increase the number of classes by one and place up to the applicable percentage of the total schools in the sport/activity into Class 1. (See also Notes 1 and 2).
6. Percentage in Class 1 and Equally Divide the Rest: Equally distribute the remaining percentage of schools into the rest of the classes above Class 1. Return to Step 3 and review the differentials. Repeat as needed until the number of classes is finalized.
7. Ties: Enrollment ties across a class break will be ignored until after the Championship Factor has reclassified schools, due to those changes solving most ties.
8. Championship Factor Review and Adjustments: Move to Championship Factor section below for this second step of the classification process. 

For those of you who may not be familiar with the Championship Factor, MSHSAA has listed out the following guidelines in their handbook:


Championship Factor: As outlined in By-Law 5.1.7, after classification is completed in a certain sport, MSIP-exempt schools that achieve specified points based on advancement in the district and state series over the six years prior to the current school year in the applicable (gender-specific) sport or competitive activity will be re-classified upward.
1. Post-season points (points are not cumulative; school will receive the points for the highest finish only):
    a. District Champion: 1 point
    b. State 3rd/4th Place: 2 points
    c. State 2nd Place: 3 points
    d. State Champion: 4 points
2. Point Totals for Re-Classification:
    a. 0 -- 2 points: remain classified based on raw enrollment
    b. 3 -- 7 points: re-classified one class above where classified on raw enrollment
    c. 8+ points: re-classified two classes above where classified on raw enrollment
3. Reclassification Points of Emphasis and Procedures:
    a. Post-season Points are Sport-Specific and Gender-Specific: In all sex-separated sports offered to both genders the post-season points of girls and boys teams of the same coed school (MSIP-exempt) will be calculated separately and teams would be reclassified separately, as per the points achieved.
    b. Equal Numbers Up and Down: For each MSIP-exempt school that is reclassified upward due to points achieved, a school at the bottom of that class will drop down to the lower class to keep the numbers of schools in the class consistent, to the extent possible (ties may affect this). (See also letters c-ii and d below)
    c. Cross Country and Track & Field (Linked Genders): As per By-Law 5.1.8, in the sports of cross country and track & field, the girls and boys teams of coed schools are classified together initially.
        i. Reclassification Upward - Genders not linked: Coed MSIP-exempt schools that are reclassified upward due to points achieved will move up singularly - without the team of the other gender moving up with them. As a result, the girls and boys teams of a MSIP-exempt school that is reclassified in only one gender would compete in different classes in that sport. 
        ii. Schools Dropping Down -- Genders Linked: Coed schools (of any type) with boys and girls both registered in cross country and track & field will drop down together if one gender is in a position to drop and as long as the other gender is not in a position to be reclassified upward based on points (MSIP-Exempt). For example, if School A's boys cross country team drops down due to an MSIP-exempt school being reclassified upward, School A's girls team will drop down as well, even if no MSIP-exempt school is reclassified on the girls side, and even if they are not the smallest school in their originally assigned class. In these two sports, this drop procedure will be connected to the gender with more registrations, as confirmed in step 1 of the Championship Procedures, and drops will not be repeated for the gender with fewer registrations (see also Classification Note 2).
        iii. Order of Championship Factor Procedures in Linked-Gender Sports:
            • First, MSIP-exempt Schools for the gender with more registrations are reclassified upward.
            • Second, MSIP-exempt Schools for the gender with fewer registrations are reclassified upward.
            • Third, a number of schools equal to the number that was reclassified upward in the first step are dropped down for the gender with more registrations, and the opposite-gender-team of any coed school that is moved down will be linked and move down as well (see d-ii above). This required process may nullify an original enrollment break, the number of schools originally assigned to a class, and/or the "waterfall" look of the classes in a sport/activity.
            d. Enrollment Ties: After MSIP-exempt schools are reclassified upward based on points, and schools are moved down to refill class totals, ties will be detected. Any ties across enrollment breaks will be moved down (except in the sport of football: ties will be broken using prior year's enrollments if a class is full at 64). Ultimately, ties may spoil the "waterfall" look of the classes.
            e. Cooperative Sponsorships: Any co-op that includes an MSIP-exempt school is subject to the championship factor and the accumulation of points for post-season advancement. As a co-op, the points for each school are held together, and the co-op may move up or down in classification based on total points, as described above. MSIP-exempt schools carry their own points into a new co-op. Each school within a coop (including a public school) will carry a percentage of the points earned during the co-op when the co-op disbands (50% each for a two-school co-op; 33% each for a three-school co-op). For new co-ops of only MSIP-exempt schools, prior points (like enrollments) will be added together to determine points for the co-op. Forming or disbanding a coop will not eliminate points or protect from re-classification based on earned points.